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Sah-mat economic |
Ce citim |
Scris de Florin Rusu |
Miercuri, 18 Mai 2011 14:14 |
Care este problema societatii actuale, daca exista una? De ce pietele esueaza, iar guvernele si mai abitir? Este suficienta informatia eronata transmisa de interventiile autoritatilor (monetare, fiscale si administrative) pentru a explica esecul pietelor? Paradoxal, la aceste intrebari se poate gasi, daca nu un raspuns, macar o sugestie intr-o recenzie facuta de Gary Kasparov volumului Endgame: Bobby Fischer's Remarkable Rise and Fall - from America's Brightest Prodigy to the Edge of Madness. (via Tyler Cowen)
Kasparov sustine ca nicio categorie de reprezentanti ai modernismului (artisti, matematicieni, filosofi, oameni de stiinta sau psihologi) nu pot explica ceea ce caracterizeaza un mare jucator de sah. “Generations of artists, authors, mathematicians, philosophers, and psychologists have pondered what exactly it is that makes for a great chess player. More recently, scientists with advanced brain-scanning machines have joined the hunt, looking for hot spots of activity as a master contemplates a move. An obsessive-competitive streak is enough to create a good squash player or a good (or bad) investment banker. It’s not enough…”. Interesanta este si sugerarea, de catre Kasparov, a faptului ca educatia stintifica specializata si comportamentul obsesiv competitiv nu garanteaza ca un bacher este bun. El poate fi la fel de bine si unul rau. Dar ce il face pe un jucator de sah cu adevarat mare? “This is not meant to be a compliment, necessarily. Many strong chess players go on to successful careers as currency and stock traders, so I suppose there is considerable crossover in the pattern-matching and intuitive calculation skills required. But the aptitude for playing chess is nothing more than that. My argument has always been that what you learn from using the skills you have—analyzing your strengths and weaknesses—is far more important. If you can program yourself to learn from your experiences by assiduously reviewing what worked and what did not, and why, success in chess can be very valuable indeed. In this way, the game has taught me a great deal about my own decision-making processes that is applicable in other areas, but that effort has little to do with natural gifts”, sustine Kasparov. Cu alte cuvinte, o virtute clasica si nu una moderna, spiritul critic, mai ales cel autocritic, este cel care il delimiteaza pe un jucator mare de un simplu jucator. Iar esecul “generatiilor de artisti, matematicieni, filosofi, psihologi si oameni de stiinta” de a defini un sahist mare arata esecul metodologiei acestora, bazata pe presupozitia atot-puterniciei stiintei. Iar in economie (o stiinta mai slaba decat cele naturale) efectele sunt extrem de nocive. Atat la nivel micro (al traderilor, bancherilor comerciali, etc) cat si la nivel macro (al proponentilor de politici publice si bancherilor centrali), increderea oarba in stiinta, in modele utilitar concepute pentru a facilita insertia de variabile nesupuse spiritului critic, duce nu la simple esecuri ale pietei, ci la adevarate riscuri sistemice. Iar toti acesti actori, micro si macro, se remarca prin ceea ce Kasparov numeste “obsessive-competitive streak”. Modele construite sau folosite de ei nu sunt supuse decat unui singur test: daca li se inchide excel-ul. Un model este catalogat mai bun ca altul nu in urma unei analize (auto)critice a presupozitiilor si fundamentelor teoretice pe care a fost conceput, ci pe baza principiului erorii celei mai mici cu care li se inchide modelul fata de datele statistice (colectate si ele potrivit unor alte modele cu propriile lor erori de estimare). Citand un economist modern, Ronald Coase, principiul dupa care se orienteaza teoria economica actuala este acela potrivit caruia “dacă torturezi datele suficient de mult timp, in cele din urmă Natura va mărturisi”. In sistemul economic actual, nu antreprenorii privati sunt in competitie, ci modele pe care acestia si guvernantii le folosesc. Asa se ajunge ca masa monetara sa nu mai influenteze nivelul preturilor, in functie de modelele si definitiiile folosite.
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